Enlightening is the New Embiggening

Bigger, faster, stronger. These were the hallmarks of the new car model; model after model after model. Is it climate change that has now seemingly put a stop to the old school mantra of progress, or, just the shrinking of wallets? Either way, Australia's supposed dinosaurs are still leading the way in efficiency. Yes, you read that right. 

In possibly the most redundant statement of all time, the release of a new version of whatever, is always heralded with the proclamation of "BEST EVER". 'They' have been saying it for years and it was easy to do so because progress was always measured in the same way. Shampoo usually has 50% more essential shinnervesance, and beauty cream reduces lines in 12% more self assessed participants. With respect to cars, it has always been the aforementioned size, speed and strength. 

With the impending arrival of the New VF Commodore, you can expect more of the same, with regard to proclamations of succession and progress, but the reworked car will be no larger than it's predecessor. In fact, through the use of aluminium and other modern engineering wizadry, it will shed the combined weight of my wife, a carton of Crown Lager and a decent family roast. (Call it 70kgs if you must).

So how does this relate to real life? Well if the Commodore were on The Biggest Loser, 70kgs would present  a total weight loss of 4%.... keeping the Commodore above the yellow line and excluding it from elimination..... . Okay, not the best example. Let's have a look at how it looks against some of the competition.

Currently the Holden Omega Sedan has an ADR rated fuel consumption of 8.9L/100kms. That puts it ahead of the Toyota Aurion and Honda Accord V6, but on par with the 2.0T Jaguar XJ ($68,990). 

"How can that be?" I hear you ask. The base model Commodore is as efficient as a Base model Jaguar? Surely not. It is because the Jaguar is getting a little on the porky side. At 1745kgs, it will soon be around 200kgs heavier than the VF Commodore, which is me, my wife and the aforementioned sundries, but exchanging the roast for a side of lamb.

Even BMW with their smaller previous generation 530i would be bested by Holden's soon to be be replaced base model when it comes to economy. Mercedes Benz E350 was also less efficient up until mid 2011 with the arrival of their Blue Efficiency variant which retailed for over $130,000. And of course the Euros all require either 95 or 98 RON. 

So what options are there, besides smelly diesels, that will cost you less than 6 figures? An option from the blue corner, of course. 

Right now, Ford have the Ecoboost Falcon that has a combined ADR figure of 8.1 L/100kms. That's better than the current E350 Blue Efficiency  model from Mercedes Benz, and, it can be had for less than $38kAUD. In fact it is even cheaper than it's Euro stable mate Taurus... er Mondeo, which incidentally also costs more to service and is smaller, and is poxy front wheel drive. 

The new VF Commodore is already being built and will be released in June. Key improvements will be in interior design and technology, efficiency through weight reduction, and, very competitive pricing. Hopefully people will forget their prejudices and see for themselves if Holden have honed in on the decreed preferences of the market. It will no doubt be, the best ever.

If Ghost Busters Taught Us Anything.....

There are a whole raft of ways you can succeed at a business, but the universal essential key is to identify a need. That need isn't necessarily in demand right now (in fact perceived revolutionary products often hit the market right on the leading edge of demand) but that doesn't mean you need to wait for an ancient diety to open a multidimensional portal to create that demand either.

Take, for example, those poor souls who build anything related to iPhone. Okay so perhaps they're not exactly POOR souls, since they had a few good years already, following Apples products around as the key influence on their own offerings. However, how would you feel when the iPhone 5 comes out and all that new stock you had built in advance of the release, is instantly made redundant by a change in plug configuration?

Likely you'd roam through your warehouse flailing your arms like the staypuft marshmallow man wondering what you're going to do with what is now olde stock! You can't sell it to the kids; they've moved on!

Though there isn't much that could have been done in that case,  there are still examples of companies beating a dead horse for too long. These examples can be found anywhere you find heavy discounts. The product hasn't necessarily gotten any worse,  but the ads have stopped, it's no longer trending and your dad has one.

The speed of fad burnout these days is astronomical and proportionate to the increase in connectivity (which I'll discuss in an entry all it's own) which demonstrates the need for 2 essential ingredients relating to your product

1. Tie the longevity of your product to longevity of the source you used to identify the demand.

Memes for example, are only useful for nimble advertising agencies to produce reactive campaigns. You would not, however, go making ermagerd themed sheet sets.

2. Make/build/generate your stock in accordance with the forecast demand.

Monitor the strength of demand ruthlessly and most importantly, let that information drive the speed of your supply line. If you identify that your supply pipeline is too slow to get product to market in time to meet demand, the risk of being caught with dead stock should justify your investment in improving supply agility.

Remember, if you can't create or react to changes in demand, one day your customers are not going to call any more. They'll want He-Man......

Just For Clicks

Way way back in the day, I remember a participant to #blogchat specifically warning against changing your blogging style in the pursuit of more traffic. "There are millions of internet users online. Be true to your values and they will gravitate towards you" 

I often wonder if that particular seer of interwebz stuck to his or her guns. If they did indeed let their motivations guide their content, did they achieve a readership significant enough for their goals?

Once again, another autoshow has produced a quote from an American auto exec, which has been used as justification to speculate on the future of the Australian automotive manufacturing industry. Once again, I'm sure the internerdz have thrown a gasket trying to disprove or confirm the false prophets, but not me.

I had one look at one article which contained everything I needed to know: just the quotes.

There is no real new information, just speculation, as usual seeking the eager pointers and finger tips of Joe and Jane Public.

  This is a hazard which exists when entities decide they are a news site rathe
r than a point of information AND entertainment.

The same scrap of information is regurgitated between competitors creating an environment of false importance.

I hope to change that soon. Please PLEASE tell me if I become one of those  "professionals" in it just for clicks.

In the mean time, stop feeding the professional trolls. ;-)

Risky Biz

Yeah so I changed the title to avoid either Scientological or commercial (same thing really) liability.....

Soon, unless you like the same boring crap as every other automaton, your favourite thing is going to be cancelled. This is not a new development. Anything remotely defined by being different, is living on borrowed time and it is because of that ominous monstrosity called risk.

Used since the dawn of litigation to not only put a value on fun, but also to quantify how much you can have, and, how much it will cost to have more, risk is the financial impact of a failed plan.

That's the business related definition anyway and that's the aspect (the dominant influence at least) currently pointing a loaded calculator at the head of your favourite product.

If you've seen those stories about Gen Y or Z or whatever being more interested in mobile technology than mobility technology, and the associated cacophony from the automotive opinion-o-sphere, then you have also seen a prime example of how obsessed modern business has become with risk.

Now, any automotive product developed with Gen Y in mind is less likely to succeed (unless it's a rectangle with round corners and we know that can't happen without a lengthy patent war). Therefore, making products for these yoofs is a riskier form of product development. Even worse, these young adults (which have barely experienced life mind you so are hardly in a position to determine what it is they actually want) could reduce demand for automobiles in the future, causing total collapse of car culture and the industry as a whole!

It really is best if everyone just invests in mobile technology and spends all their development cash on thinking of new and exciting apps......

Or, of course, you could do what happened waaaaay back in 1995. I was a mere 20 years old and didn't even want a mobile phone. What I wanted was something that scared the shit out of me, and I got it in the form of a 1988 NSR 250 motorcycle (which I ended up crashing.... often). One thing I had no interest in was Japanese sedans or 5 door hatchbacks. Then this happened:

 
I was in the back seat (sideways mind you as rear seat leg room wasn't a strong suit for the Impreza) as a friend of mine took the first WRX in Toowoomba for a test drive. The dealer, sitting in the passenger seat, offers some vague permission "it's only just arrived so feel free to make a little noise".

Two seconds later, I'm airborne over the Herries Street railway crossing.

Now the WRX was not the first vehicle of its kind. In fact another workmate had a Mazda 323 Turbo AWD but that was quite soggy and slow in comparison, and when was the last time you saw one of them or a Ford Laser TX3) on the road? Subaru had a hit on their hands which redefined their reputation beyond dependability (which came from their other segment maker the Brumby/BRAT) to a haven for enthusiasts.

Now this may sound counter-intuitive so take a deep breath, 2 bravery pills and try not to sprain your heartilage:

You do not mitigate risk by making a product that is the same but ever so slightly different to the competition. You mitigate risk by making a ground breaking product.

 What seems to be happening lately is that companies try something briefly, accept the outcome of a focus group as representative of society as a whole and decide it best to direct development funds to the current growth segment.

When it comes to growth segments in Australia and the North American market, SUVs are the strongest, which in one dimensional world says "low risk", but you know what? There will never be another ground breaking SUV (I can't remember the first or last one) and it seems that they have become as good as they can get. Where, then, is the room to improve, to become the standard bearer. SUVs are now so similar in specification, and function, and economy, and price, that every single one of them has a higher proportion of direct competitors. That makes every single one of them HIGH RISK with LOW RETURN!

Want more risk? Where do your peers go when they want to know about new cars? Since everyone likes to be perceived as a know it all these days, they head on line. And what type of car creates the most content on line? The kind of car that car lovers love.

The Subaru BRZ sold out in Australia in a single day and it didn't even get as much coverage as the Toyota FT 86. The non-turbo twins are run away hits and it's not because they copied anyone else in their segment. (are they even in a segment with anyone else?)

It was high risk from a one dimensional focus group point of view. Who would want a sports car with meagre torque and cramped accommodation and it doesn't even have a turbo!?! Everyone it seems. It was low risk to anyone who knows anything about car culture and the current state of the industry.

Now forget for the moment, development costs and consider the value of the product. What has it done for Toyota and Subaru as brands?

Toyota has recalled MILLIONS of cars over the last 3 years and Subarus last WRX was such an under-steery porpoise that it had to go back to fat camp before being allowed back out into the public.

All is forgiven because someone finally made something to rave about and it's not even very fast.

Get out of the box and build something different. It's too risky not to.

I know there will be a million risk specialists that will pick at this post because you need to specify the risk in order to attribute appropriate mitigation, but I am referring to net product risk which is a term I just made up especially for this disclaimer. 



  

Value and the Eye of the Beholder

My neighbour gave my six year old son one of life's essential tools the other day. Fashioned from an innocent twig and a rubber band, the slingshot is small enough to not do any serious damage, but strong enough to demonstrate the folly of playing with the laws of physics should he follow in his dads foot steps and shoot a small pebble at his own foot. Rubber bands were much prized when I was a whippersnapper. They could be used in the aforementioned construction of a weapon, strap additional guns to your G.I. Joe, make spider web patterns between your fingers, or even shoot your teacher in the back with nothing more than courage, and a little bit of luck, if one were so inclined. Getting a good thick one would ensure convergence of the greatest minds on the playground during recess trying to concoct a new way to propel things at new and interesting girls.

Imagine then, my surprise when I first saw a whole bag of them for sale in the newsagents, for a mere 50 cents!

More recently, I've been seeking a toy more appropriate to my age: a manual RWD something or other. Initially my goal was simple; find a cheap Kingswood, do a quick engine swap and a little suspension tweakage and viola! Daily driver/weekend cruiser.

Seems as though I'm not the only one. A few years ago I could have picked up a straight sedan for less than 2 grand. It is now cheaper to buy an XJ Jaguar than a Holden of similar vintage!

Why then, is a car which once cost 2 to 3 times more, now considered a second choice? You can blame Lucas electronics I suppose. Lord knows its the scapegoat for all that ails British automobilia, but really, why is a 30 year old busted ass Kingswood (the HQ in particular which Holden's best selling series) fetching twice the value of a 30 year old piece of British luxury?

I have a few theories; foremost being that the mining boom has created a pool of cashed up bogans ready to meet the market in order to own what they once thought impossible.

Another possibility is, when viewing this end of the market, a replacement engine for an old Holden will set you back a carton of beer and maybe a couple of tickets to the footy. Conversely, a replacement interior light bulb for an old Jag requires in depth discussions with your nearest financial planner.

I think I'll jump the queue and buy a shitbox 1992 VP Commodore for $950 from that bloke down the street. Should be worth it when the next generation finally realise that cars give you far more freedom and value than the latest smart phone..... or even rubber bands.

Self-Inflicted Nanny State

That's right: self-inflicted. The main vehicle in our family is a rather gorgeous and willing, Sizzle red Holden SV6 Sportwagon. It's got whizz bangs and geegaws up the whatsit. You can access all the iWizardry of my iPhone 4 via the illuminated thumb wheel on the multiadjustable steering wheel. The phone book in said phone is accessible through the touch screen on my centre console, as is recent call history. I can switch between iPod streaming, USB connection, HDD burned CDs, or if I'm feeling old skool, AM/ FM radio.


The engine management system ensures that fewer baby whales are killed by my right foot than ever before (can't say the same for Japan or South Korea), and, we are hardly struggling for grunt with 210+ KW pushing the rear wheels in appropriate directions with impressive enthusiasm.


There is also an arms length of sensors and design elements incorporated to give my family maximum safety (5 Stars says NCAP). Best of all, if I am suddenly confronted by Skippy leaping across the highway in the rain on a Sunday afternoon, all that electrickery (AKA Electronic Stability Control or ESC) will bring myself and my family to a halt in the fastest and safest way possible. Skippy hops away and we're all feeling warm and fuzzy.


Sounds great right? Well it is, but today I feel a little.... cheap. For the second time this week, I have driven the Sportwagon into the ESC safety net. They weren't massive incidents that I couldn't get out of and the intervention is as unobtrusive as one could hope for, but that is hardly the point.


I spend a lot of time in my piece of crap 10 year old Vectra with a now sagging head lining, manual winder windows and intermittent volume control, honing my car control skills during my daily commute. If I get it wrong in "Victoria" as she is known, things can go pear shaped quickly so I make every consideration about where to stick which boot and when to "spare the rod".


In the Sportwagon however, I seem to have gotten lazy, knowing that ESC will save my ass. It wasn't a conscious decision, but, now I am aware of it, and, I feel like a cheat!


Think about how that will play out in the general motoring public. Drivers will spend less time thinking about what their car is doing, instead, driving to the electronically imposed limit. It's a scary proposition, especially when it becomes the norm for a car to save you from yourself and car companies start getting sued for not taking over when you are trying to text your #bff.


It's not the end of the world. It's not too late. Turn off your OEM installed nanny goats and go do some donuts.

Opel Rush

So here they come. Via my snail mail box a few weeks ago, came the first tangible evidence for the arrival of General Motors troubled European branch, Opel.

Technically, I already own one (kind of) with all manner of Achtung stickers under the bonnet of my well weathered 2000 Holden Vectra, and, ownership is not without it's challenges.

Though my particular unit must be a Wednesday car, only midly possessed by the Lucas gremlin, Vectras in general have a bad reputation for undiagnosable stalling issues and diabolical electrickery, so much so that even the local shitbomb peddlers would not even give me a lazy 2 grand for it. To be fair, she just ticked over 278000 kms, but last time (also the first time) I got a lift from Mr. Tow, I was regaled with horror stories of disintegrating engines (due to tardy timing belt maintenance) and bazillion dollar spare key programming.

Does that make me gun shy about the new Opel range? Hell to the no! Have you seen what they are offering?

Let me just firstly say, that you'll have a hard time prying my left hand from the steering wheel of my 210kw RWD Sportwagon, because my right hand will be alternately punching you in the face and family jewels (whether they be nuts or the other kind). However, all three model ranges (compact Corsa, small[ish] Astra, and mid size Insignia) all come with a beautifully modern sleek design, and, at least a passing interest in going around corners.

Most exciting for me, is not the hot hatch GTC, but the arrival of 2 new wagons to the Oz market.

Firstly, the return of the Astra wagon, which I can only hope includes a turbo manual something (petrol), will hopefully help to rid the roads of all manner of clumsy looking inefficient faux SUVs (from the Mitsu ASV to the Angry Birds inspired French 3008). Whilst it may not wipe them off the map, it's a very handsome start.

Next is the Vectra.... ahem, sorry Insignia Estate, which is the first FWD based wagon I've lusted after since I cant remember when (though AWD R36 Passat gets an honorable mention). Virtually perfect proportions, stunning backend and an interior flare that pulls up short of gauche, all add up to a vehicle with real potential in the Australian premium market.

I would even like to see the Zafira Tourer make an appearance but I guess they just don't know if the Oz market is ready yet. And that is the real question. Can Australia's already crowded market provide any meaningful volume for Opel?

There are signs of higher ticket prices for small to medium vehicles (such as Golf which is the prime competitor for the Astra in Europe) and unlike Volkswagens current crop, the Opel range don't look like Teutonic toasters.

So what do Opel need to do? They need to create brand recognition for their fancy lightning bolt, which allows the owner to believe they are driving something above and beyond the much revered VW.

That is certainly a hard task as VW fans can be just as one-eyed as the fans of any other brand, but, Opel do win many European comparisons against the VW equivalents. So I guess you will see a lot of quotes from Europe about how good Opel is, and that is a pretty sound strategy. With 38 awards relating to design, innovation and including European Car of the Year, the Insignia certainly has a healthy pool of praise from which to draw.